How it turned out
We projected about 2.2 goals and the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Under 2.5 goals 54%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Estudiantes de Mérida and 1.2 from Academia Puerto Cabello, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.2 goals in total (xG 1.0-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 56%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 54 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.59, which works out at about 63 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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