How it turned out
We projected about 2.7 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Over 1.5 goals 71%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Monagas SC and 1.3 from Portuguesa, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.4-1.3), landing about 73% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 71 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
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