How it turned out
We projected about 3.0 goals; the game finished with 2. Both teams scored. We made Atletico-MG to win 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Atletico-MG and 0.9 from Chapecoense-SC, so Atletico-MG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Atletico-MG to win. Atletico-MG are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.8), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.42, which works out at about 70 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Atletico-MG have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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