What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Atletico-MG and 0.8 from Chapecoense-SC, so Atletico-MG come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Atletico-MG to win. Atletico-MG are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.8), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Atletico-MG are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
✓Chapecoense-SC have won one of their last five.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
2 Apr 2026Chapecoense-SC 0 - 4 Atletico-MG
6 Oct 2021Chapecoense-SC 2 - 2 Atletico-MG
22 Jun 2021Atletico-MG 1 - 1 Chapecoense-SC
30 Oct 2019Atletico-MG 0 - 2 Chapecoense-SC
14 Jul 2019Chapecoense-SC 1 - 2 Atletico-MG
