How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Over 2.5 goals 48%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Mirassol and 1.3 from Botafogo RJ, so Mirassol come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.5-1.3), landing about 51% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 48 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.80, which works out at about 56 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Botafogo RJ have won one of the last three meetings, with two drawn.
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