How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Internacional to score 1 or fewer 75%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.4 goals from Sao Paulo and 0.9 from Internacional, so Sao Paulo come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Internacional to score 1 or fewer. This is about Internacional's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.9 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 75%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Sao Paulo have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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