What to expect
We expect about 1.5 goals from Vasco and 1.3 from Coritiba, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 2.8 goals between the two (xG 1.5-1.3), landing about 46% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Vasco have won three of their last five.
✓Coritiba have won three of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
2 Apr 2026Coritiba 1 - 1 Vasco
21 Sept 2023Vasco 5 - 1 Coritiba
11 May 2023Coritiba 1 - 1 Vasco
17 Jan 2021Vasco 0 - 1 Coritiba
20 Sept 2020Coritiba 1 - 0 Vasco
