What to expect
We expect about 1.1 goals from CA Paranaense PR and 1.4 from Bahia, so Bahia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bahia come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.5 goals (xG 1.1-1.4), and three is enough to land it, landing about 44% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 42 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.00, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Bahia are unbeaten in their last five — three wins and two draws.
