How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 45%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from CA Paranaense PR and 1.5 from Bahia, so Bahia come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bahia come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.6 goals (xG 1.1-1.5), and three is enough to land it, landing about 47% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 45 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.88, which works out at about 53 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
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