What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Gremio and 1.5 from Palmeiras, so Palmeiras come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Palmeiras come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Palmeiras to win. Palmeiras shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.0-1.5), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 47 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
What the numbers say
✓Gremio have won two of their last five.
✓Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last five — two wins and three draws.
✓Three of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
3 Apr 2026Palmeiras 2 - 1 Gremio
26 Nov 2025Gremio 3 - 2 Palmeiras
27 Jul 2025Palmeiras 1 - 0 Gremio
9 Nov 2024Palmeiras 1 - 0 Gremio
4 Jul 2024Gremio 2 - 2 Palmeiras
