How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Gremio to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.9 goals from Gremio and 1.5 from Palmeiras, so Palmeiras come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on three straight defeats. Palmeiras come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Gremio to score 1 or fewer. This is about Gremio's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.0 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 73%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 73 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Palmeiras have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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