What to expect
We expect about 1.0 goals from Vitoria and 1.2 from Cruzeiro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Vitoria come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.3 goals (xG 1.0-1.2), and three is enough to land it, landing about 43% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 41 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.10, which works out at about 48 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
What the numbers say
✓Vitoria have won one of their last five.
✓Cruzeiro have won two of their last five.
✓Four of the last five meetings had three goals or more.
✓Both teams scored in three of the last five meetings.
Recent meetings
2 Apr 2026Cruzeiro 3 - 0 Vitoria
1 Nov 2025Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Vitoria
12 Jun 2025Vitoria 0 - 0 Cruzeiro
20 Aug 2024Vitoria 2 - 2 Cruzeiro
28 Apr 2024Cruzeiro 3 - 1 Vitoria
