How it turned out
We projected about 2.3 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 44%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Vitoria and 1.2 from Cruzeiro, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.3 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.3 goals (xG 1.1-1.2), and three is enough to land it, landing about 46% of the time on these numbers.
We put the chance of that landing at about 44 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.99, which works out at about 50 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Cruzeiro have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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