Corinthians v Fluminense: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Over 2.5 goals 38%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.2 goals from Corinthians and 1.0 from Fluminense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Corinthians come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This does not need a goal rush: we make it around 2.2 goals (xG 1.2-1.0), and three is enough to land it, landing about 40% of the time on these numbers.

We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.40, which works out at about 42 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.