What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Corinthians and 1.0 from Fluminense, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Corinthians come into this on four straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Corinthians to win. Corinthians are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.0), and we make them about 40% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 38 out of 100. The price on offer is 2.25, which works out at about 44 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
