How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Flamengo RJ to win 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Flamengo RJ and 0.7 from Bragantino, so Flamengo RJ come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Bragantino come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Flamengo RJ to win. Flamengo RJ are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-0.7), and we make them about 71% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Flamengo RJ have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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