How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 2. We made Corinthians or Draw 70%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.3 goals from Corinthians and 1.1 from Mirassol, so Corinthians come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Corinthians or Draw. This covers Corinthians or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.19, which works out at about 84 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Mirassol have won two of the last three meetings.
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