What to expect
We expect about 1.8 goals from Coritiba and 0.8 from CA Paranaense PR, so Coritiba come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Not both teams to score. This shapes up as a quiet, low-key game — around 2.7 goals between the two (xG 1.8-0.9). One side keeping it tight for a clean sheet is well on the cards.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.74, which works out at about 57 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
A single defensive slip or a late set-piece, and the clean sheet this needs is gone. We make it about 57% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
