What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Gremio and 1.0 from Vasco, so Gremio come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.7 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Gremio come into this on two straight defeats. Vasco come into this on two straight defeats. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 2.5 goals. This one is tight against the line: we make it around 2.7 goals (xG 1.7-1.0) and it takes three to beat us, keeping it under more often than not (about 58%). A close call rather than a comfortable one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 55 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.68, which works out at about 60 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A goal against the run of play opens the game up, and a tight total can slip away fast. We make it about 58% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
