How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Dortmund to win 59%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.1 goals from Union Berlin and 1.8 from Dortmund, so Dortmund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.9 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Union Berlin come into this on two straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Dortmund to win. Dortmund shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.1-1.7), and we make them about 61% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 59 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.62, which works out at about 62 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Dortmund have won four of the last five meetings.
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