How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Dortmund and 1.0 from Werder Bremen, so Dortmund come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.2 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Dortmund come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Werder Bremen to score 1 or fewer. This is about Werder Bremen's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 0.8 on the day, and the bet wants them to 1 or fewer, which we make about 79%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 79 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Dortmund have won three of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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