What to expect
We expect about 1.4 goals from Mainz and 1.7 from Leverkusen, so Leverkusen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.4-1.7), and we make both teams to score about 65%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.45, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent meetings
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