What to expect
We expect about 1.6 goals from Elversberg and 2.9 from Bayern Munich, so Bayern Munich come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 4.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Elversberg come into this on two straight wins. Bayern Munich come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Bayern Munich to win. Bayern Munich shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.6-2.9), and we make them about 76% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 75 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.17, which works out at about 85 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Elversberg to spoil this. The price is shorter than our own read of about 76%, so there's less value here than the number suggests.
