How it turned out
We projected about 3.2 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Hamburg to score 1 or fewer 73%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
RB Leipzig host Hamburg at the Red Bull Arena on 13 September 2026. Leipzig sit fifth in the 18-team Bundesliga, six points from three games and with a +6 goal difference. They are just one point behind Bayern München and level on points with Elversberg below them. Hamburg are further down the table and have not been in the European places this season. Both teams come in on two defeats, so the match could decide whether Leipzig stay in the chase for a European spot or Hamburg try to stop a slide.
Leipzig’s recent form has been a roller-coaster. In their last eight games they have won four and lost four, with no draws. The most recent results are a 4-1 loss away to Como, then a 3-1 defeat away at Werder Bremen, a 3-0 home win over M’gladbach, and a 4-1 loss away to Freiburg. Before that they beat St Pauli 2-1 at home and suffered a 4-1 loss away to Leverkusen. Overall they have scored 15 and let in 18 in that run, keeping only one clean sheet. All eight matches have produced three or more goals and in seven both sides found the net. Their last three home games have all been wins, but the two defeats came on the road and they are playing again after just three days’ rest.
Hamburg’s eight-match stretch has been poorer. They have managed two wins, one draw and five losses. The latest results are a 5-0 home loss to Mainz, a 2-0 away defeat by Dortmund, and a 1-1 draw away at Leverkusen. Prior to that they beat Freiburg 3-2 at home, won away at Ein Frankfurt 2-1, and lost 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim. In those eight games Hamburg have scored eight and conceded 20, failing to score in three of them. Six of the matches have seen three or more goals and both sides have scored in five. Their last game was seven days ago, giving them a longer break than Leipzig.
The two clubs have met twice before this fixture. Leipzig won both meetings, the most recent on 1 March 2026 when Hamburg fell 1-2 at home. Those two games averaged three goals each, and both sides have tended to score in their encounters. Given Leipzig’s stronger numbers – a 90 % chance they will score at least once and a 65 % chance of two or more goals – the match looks open with chances at both ends. Hamburg, however, only have a 59 % chance to find the net and a 22 % chance of scoring twice, suggesting they are likely to be the lower-scoring side.
Our pick is that Hamburg will score one goal or fewer. We think the price of 1.31 is short compared with our view that the probability of this outcome is about 73 %. Leipzig’s recent high-scoring games and their need to keep pace with Bayern make them the side more likely to attack, while Hamburg have struggled to score, managing just eight goals in eight matches and failing to hit the net three times. For our pick to fail, Hamburg would need to break their recent dry spell and score at least two, which would require a sudden boost in their attacking play that has not been shown in the last eight games.
Recent results
RB Leipzig have won two of the last two meetings.
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