Union Berlin v Elversberg: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Both teams to score 60%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.3 goals from Union Berlin and 1.6 from Elversberg, so Elversberg come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.8 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.

Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.3-1.6), and we make both teams to score about 60%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.

We put the chance of that landing at about 60 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.