How it turned out
We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Werder Bremen or Draw 78%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.6 goals from Werder Bremen and 1.0 from Paderborn, so Werder Bremen come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Werder Bremen or Draw. This covers Werder Bremen or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.25, which works out at about 80 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
The last two meetings are split 1-1, with no drawn.
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