What to expect
We expect about 3.7 goals from Barcelona and 1.4 from Feyenoord, so Barcelona come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 5.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Barcelona come into this on four straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Barcelona to win. Barcelona are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 3.7-1.4), and we make them about 84% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 84 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.15, which works out at about 87 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
Feyenoord only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 84% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
