What to expect
We expect about 1.2 goals from Stuttgart and 1.4 from Viking, so Viking come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 2.6 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Our pick: Viking to win. Viking shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.2-1.4), and we make them about 49% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 49 out of 100. The price on offer is 9.33, which works out at about 11 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Stuttgart a draw or better. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 49%.
