Paris Saint Germain v Slovan Bratislava: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 5.0 goals; the game finished with 7. Both teams scored. We made Paris Saint Germain -2 (win by 3+) 74%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 4.3 goals from Paris Saint Germain and 0.8 from Slovan Bratislava, so Paris Saint Germain come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 5.0 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: Paris Saint Germain -2 (win by 3+). Paris Saint Germain to win this by three goals or more (xG 4.3-0.7). The handicap asks for more than just the win, which is why it pays what it does.

We put the chance of that landing at about 74 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.47, which works out at about 68 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.