What to expect
We expect about 2.2 goals from Liverpool and 1.3 from Atletico Madrid, so Liverpool come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Liverpool come into this on three straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Liverpool to win. Liverpool are the stronger side on the numbers (xG 2.2-1.3), and we make them about 63% to win. On this shape, taking them to come out on top looks the cleaner play than chasing a bigger price elsewhere.
We put the chance of that landing at about 63 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.79, which works out at about 56 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Atletico Madrid to spoil this. At around 63% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
