How it turned out
We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Liverpool (Draw No Bet) 72%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.2 goals from Liverpool and 1.3 from Atletico Madrid, so Liverpool come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Liverpool (Draw No Bet). Liverpool are favoured here (xG 2.2-1.3), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Liverpool defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 72 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.31, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Liverpool have won three of the last three meetings.
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