What to expect
We expect about 0.7 goals from Napoli and 1.7 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.5 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Napoli come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arsenal to win. Arsenal shade this one on the numbers (xG 0.7-1.7), and we make them about 68% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.95, which works out at about 51 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Favourites drop points more often than a short price suggests, and one moment can earn Napoli a draw or better. At around 68% on our numbers, it's a solid lean rather than a certainty.
