How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 1. We made Arsenal (Draw No Bet) 77%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 0.8 goals from Napoli and 1.6 from Arsenal, so Arsenal come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 2.4 goals in the game, which is an ordinary sort of total.
Napoli come into this on two straight defeats. Arsenal come into this on five straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Arsenal (Draw No Bet). Arsenal are favoured here (xG 0.7-1.7), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Arsenal defeat beats you.
We put the chance of that landing at about 77 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.32, which works out at about 76 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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