What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Fenerbahçe and 1.6 from Lyon, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Lyon to win. Lyon shade this one on the numbers (xG 1.7-1.6), and we make them about 40% to win. They look the better bet on the road, and backing them outright is the straightforward way in.
We put the chance of that landing at about 40 out of 100. The price on offer is 3.45, which works out at about 29 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
Recent meetings
One thing to watch
A red card, a penalty or a smash-and-grab is all it takes for Fenerbahçe to spoil this. Even on our own read it's closer to a coin-flip than a sure thing — about 40%.
