Sp Lisbon v Galatasaray: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.8 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Sp Lisbon (Draw No Bet) 81%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 2.8 goals from Sp Lisbon and 1.1 from Galatasaray, so Sp Lisbon come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.8 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Sp Lisbon come into this on four straight wins. Galatasaray come into this on three straight wins. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Sp Lisbon (Draw No Bet). Sp Lisbon are favoured here (xG 2.8-1.1), and draw-no-bet takes the sting out of it: if the game finishes level your stake comes back, so only a Sp Lisbon defeat beats you.

We put the chance of that landing at about 81 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.40, which works out at about 71 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.