How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 1.
What we said beforehand
I like Fenerbahçe to win because the price looks good. We think they have a decent chance of winning, about 50%. This seems like a straightforward bet to me.
What the numbers say
✓Sturm Graz have won three of their last five.
✓Fenerbahçe have won two of their last five.
Recent meetings
5 Aug 2026Fenerbahçe 2 - 0 Sturm Graz
One thing to watch
Sturm Graz only need one good spell or a set-piece to nick something, and short-priced favourites slip up plenty. We make it about 50% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
