Millwall v West Ham: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.5 goals and the game finished with 4. Both teams scored.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.6 goals from Millwall and 1.9 from West Ham, so West Ham come out ahead by a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.

Our pick: West Ham to score 2 or fewer. This is about West Ham's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.4 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 80%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.39, which works out at about 72 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.