Cardiff v Charlton: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.1 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Cardiff to score 2 or fewer 80%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Cardiff and 1.0 from Charlton, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.1 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Charlton come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.

Our pick: Cardiff to score 2 or fewer. This is about Cardiff's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet wants them to 2 or fewer, which we make about 80%.

We put the chance of that landing at about 80 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.