Stoke v Sheffield United: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.6 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Sheffield United to score 73%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Stoke host Sheffield United at home in the Championship on 19 September 2026. Stoke sit 13th with ten points from seven games and a neutral goal difference. Sheffield United are two places below in 15th with nine points and a minus one goal difference. The table is tight: Millwall sit just above Stoke on the same points, while Norwich sit just below them. Norwich also sit just above Sheffield United, and Blackburn sit just below them. Both clubs are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, so a win would give a small but useful boost.

Stoke have played eight games in their recent run, winning three, drawing one and losing four. Their latest results were a 2-1 win at Watford, a 1-1 draw away at Cardiff, a 4-0 victory at home over Charlton and a 1-0 win at home against Norwich. Before that they fell 4-1 to Wolves away and 3-1 to Southampton away. They have not lost in their last four matches and have won two of their last three at home. In those eight games they have scored eleven goals and let in thirteen, kept two clean sheets and failed to score once. Five of the games featured three or more goals and both sides scored in five of them.

Sheffield United come into the game after eight matches in which they have won two, drawn one and lost five. Their most recent results are a 1-0 loss away to Fleetwood Town, a 3-1 defeat away to Wolverhampton WFC, a 1-0 loss at home to Wolves, another 1-0 home loss to Wolverhampton Wanderers, a 2-1 away win over Blackburn and a 3-1 home defeat by Norwich. They have endured four straight defeats overall, though on the road in their last four they have one win, one draw and two losses. In the eight-game stretch they have scored nine and conceded fourteen, have failed to find the net three times and have seen five games with three or more goals, with both sides scoring in five of those. They played just three days ago, so the turnaround is short.

The two clubs have met five times before, and Sheffield United have won every encounter. Those games have produced an average of three goals each. The most recent meeting was a 2-1 win for Sheffield United at Stoke on 29 December 2025. Given the history of high-scoring games and the fact that both sides have been involved in matches where both teams score, we can expect another open affair with chances for both sides.

Our pick is Sheffield United to score. The chance they find the net is about 73 per cent, which matches the price of 1.33 and sits close to our own reading of the game. The price looks good for a simple goal bet. For this to fail, Sheffield United would have to be shut out, which would require a very tight defensive display from Stoke that has not been common in their recent games. If they manage to score even once, the bet should succeed.