What to expect
We expect about 2.5 goals from Southampton and 1.2 from Bolton, so Southampton come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.7 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Over 2.5 goals. This should be an open game: we make it around 3.7 goals between the two (xG 2.5-1.2), landing about 67% of the time on these numbers. Both sides carry a threat, so the goals should follow.
We put the chance of that landing at about 65 out of 100. There is no settled price to hold that up against yet, so treat the call on its own terms.
What the numbers say
✓Southampton have won two of their last five.
✓Bolton have won two of their last five.
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