How it turned out
We projected about 3.3 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Zwolle to score 70%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 2.1 goals from Groningen and 1.2 from Zwolle, so Groningen come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.3 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Groningen come into this on two straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Zwolle to score. This is about Zwolle's goals alone, not the game's total. We make them around 1.2 on the day, and the bet needs them to find the net, which we make about 70%.
We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.35, which works out at about 74 out of 100. The price is shorter than our own read, so there is less in this than it might look.
Recent results
Zwolle have won one of the last five meetings, with four drawn.
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