What to expect
Cuba host Bonaire in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 28 September 2026. Both teams are mid-table in the league, but Cuba sit a few points above Bonaire and will be looking to pull away from the pack. A win for Cuba would give them a small cushion in the race for the next round, while Bonaire need three points to keep their hopes alive. On paper Cuba are the stronger side, with an expected 2.1 goals compared with Bonaire’s 0.9, so the match should offer chances at both ends.
Cuba have been busy lately. They beat their last opponent 3-1, then followed that with a 2-0 victory, and most recently they drew 1-1 away. Those three games give them a run of two wins and a draw, scoring six goals while conceding two. The run shows they can find the net regularly and keep a clean sheet most of the time. Their recent form suggests they are comfortable in attack and solid when defending.
Bonaire’s recent record is less impressive. They lost 4-1 in their previous game, then suffered a 3-0 defeat, and most recently they managed a 1-1 draw. The three results add up to one point from nine, with just two goals scored and seven conceded. The draw was a hard-won point after two heavy losses, and it showed that they can still hold a side for 90 minutes, but they have struggled to find the back of the net.
When the two sides have met before, the games have been open affairs with both teams getting chances. The numbers for this meeting point to a similar pattern – Cuba are expected to score, and Bonaire have a decent chance of getting on the scoresheet as well. With Cuba’s chance of scoring at least once at 89 % and a 64 % chance of scoring twice or more, the game looks likely to have several goals. Bonaire’s chance of scoring at all sits at 55 %, but the odds of them scoring twice are low at 19 %.
We pick Cuba to win. The price of 1.13 is shorter than what we feel the game is worth, but the numbers back our view. Cuba’s expected 2.1 goals against Bonaire’s 0.9 give them a clear edge, and we see about a 70 % chance of them coming out on top. The price looks good for a side that should dominate the match. It would only go wrong if Cuba fail to break down a very defensive Bonaire or if they concede an early goal and lose confidence. In that case the result could be tighter than we expect.
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