Latvia v Cyprus: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Latvia or Draw 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Latvia host Cyprus in a UEFA Nations League clash on 28 September. Both teams sit in the middle of their group, each hoping to pull away from the pack. A win would give the home side a small edge in the race for the top spot, while Cyprus would like to keep the pressure on their rivals. The two sides are almost evenly matched on the numbers we have, so the game could go either way.

Latvia have been busy of late. They beat Estonia 2-1, then drew 1-1 with Finland and followed that with a 3-2 victory over Montenegro. That string of three games gives them six points and six goals scored, while they have let in four. The run shows they can find the net and also keep games close when they need to.

Cyprus have had a mixed spell. They started with a 0-0 stalemate against Malta, then lost 1-2 at home to Slovenia and bounced back with a 2-0 win over Georgia. Their most recent outing was a 1-1 draw against Israel, where they fought back from a goal down to share the points. In that match they created chances and showed they can score even when under pressure.

When the two met before, the games were tight and low-scoring, and the pattern is likely to repeat. Both sides have a good chance of scoring – 73 % for Latvia and 68 % for Cyprus – but the odds of either side finding the net twice are lower, around a third. Expect a modest goal tally, probably one or two goals in total, with both teams looking to stay compact and wait for a chance.

We back Latvia or a draw at 1.42. The price sits close to our own reading of the game. It gives us a safety net – if Latvia win outright we are right, and if the match ends level we are also covered. The pick looks good because the chances of a Latvia win or a draw add up to about 70 % in our view. It would go wrong if Cyprus manage to score twice and keep Latvia quiet, turning the game into a narrow Cyprus win. In that case the price would not pay off.