Northern Ireland v Hungary: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.2 goals; the game finished with 0. We made Northern Ireland or Draw 70%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

We expect about 1.1 goals from Northern Ireland and 1.0 from Hungary, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.2 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.

Our pick: Northern Ireland or Draw. This covers Northern Ireland or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.

We put the chance of that landing at about 70 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.44, which works out at about 69 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.