Romania v Bosnia and Herzegovina: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.5 goals; the game finished with 6. Both teams scored. We made Romania or Draw 83%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

We meet in Bucharest for a Nations League clash that could decide who pulls ahead in the group. Romania sit above Bosnia and Herzegovina in the table, and the home side will be looking to cement that advantage. A win would give Romania a clear step toward promotion, while Bosnia and Herzegovina need a point to keep their hopes alive. The numbers show Romania as the stronger side – they are expected to score 1.5 goals on average, compared with 0.9 for the visitors. An 80 % chance that Romania will find the net at least once and a 46 % chance of scoring twice or more underline their attacking edge. Bosnia and Herzegovina have a 57 % chance of scoring at all and only a 20 % chance of getting two goals. The game is likely to be tight, with the total goal expectation sitting at 2.5.

Our pick is Romania or a draw. The price on offer is 1.34, which is longer than what we think the game will produce. By backing Romania or the draw we protect ourselves against a narrow win for the hosts or a stalemate, while still keeping the odds attractive. The chance of this outcome happening sits at 83 % in our view, so we feel the price is generous for the safety net it provides. If the match ends 1-0 or 2-0 to Romania, our selection is safe. A 0-0 result also works for us, as does a 1-1 draw, which would still give the visitors a point.

For the result to go against us, a surprise win for Bosnia and Herzegovina would be needed. That would require the visitors to score at least twice while keeping a clean sheet, something the statistics say is unlikely – only a 20 % chance of them finding the net twice and a 57 % chance of scoring at all. A high-scoring draw, such as 2-2, would also break our pick, but the odds of both sides scoring two or more are low (46 % for Romania, 20 % for Bosnia). In short, the most probable scenarios are a narrow win for Romania or a low-scoring draw, and the price we see reflects that balance nicely.