Suriname v Martinique: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 2.4 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Suriname to win 63%, and it landed.

What we said beforehand

Suriname host Martinique in a CONCACAF Nations League clash on 28 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of the table, each looking to climb a few spots before the final round. The points are tight, so a win could move the home side up and push the visitors further down. On paper Suriname are the stronger side. Their expected goal tally is 1.7 compared with Martinique’s 0.8, and they have an 84 % chance of finding the net at least once, while Martinique’s chance sits at 48 %. The odds reflect that gap – the price for a Suriname win is 1.57, which matches our own view of the game.

We think Suriname will edge it. Our own reading puts them at about a 65 % chance to win, and the price is right on that level. Suriname are likely to score, and they have a good chance of scoring more than once – a 52 % probability of two or more goals. Martinique, on the other hand, are less likely to hit the target at all and even less likely to score twice, with only a 14 % chance of finding the net more than once. If Suriname can keep the pressure on and get an early goal, the match should tilt in their favour. The price looks good for a straightforward win, and we only see it going wrong if Martinique manage to shut down Suriname’s attack completely and snatch a low-scoring draw or surprise win. In that case the odds would not have paid off, but the odds of such an upset are low. All things considered, backing Suriname to win is the cleaner play.