What to expect
We expect about 2.0 goals from Sweden and 1.4 from Poland, so Sweden come out ahead by a clear distance rather than a nose. Put together, that is around 3.5 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Sweden or Draw. This covers Sweden or the draw, trading a shorter price for a wider safety net. A sensible way to back the lean without needing the exact result.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.26, which works out at about 79 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
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