Turkey v Italy: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Turkey or Draw 66%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

Turkey host Italy in the final round of the UEFA Nations League on 28 September 2026. Both teams sit in the middle of their groups, each looking to secure the point that could lift them clear of the relegation spots. The table is tight, and a single result will move the balance. Statistically the two sides are almost identical. We expect a total of about three goals, with Turkey averaging 1.6 and Italy 1.5. The numbers point to an open contest with chances at both ends. The probability that Turkey will find the net at least once is 80 percent, while Italy’s chance to score is 78 percent. Both sides also have a solid chance of scoring twice or more – 46 percent for Turkey and 43 percent for Italy. In short, the match should produce goals and will likely be decided by fine margins rather than a defensive slog.

Our pick is Turkey or a draw, offered at 1.47. The price sits close to our own reading of the game, giving us a sensible way to back the slight edge Turkey have without needing to pick the exact scoreline. We calculate a 66 percent chance that this selection will be right. It works because Turkey’s chance to score is marginally higher and the game is expected to be tight, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. For the pick to go wrong, Italy would need to win outright, which would require them to out-score Turkey despite the very similar expected goal figures. If Italy manages to keep a clean sheet and score twice, the bet would fail. All things considered, the price looks good for the risk, and the safety net of the draw makes it a prudent choice.