How it turned out
We projected about 2.4 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Burton looks the stronger side in this EFL League One clash. Our numbers put them at about 1.5 goals while AFC Wimbledon are around 0.9. That means the game is likely to be tight, with not a lot of firepower on either end. Expect a careful contest rather than a free-scoring affair.
Both clubs have not been mentioned for recent runs, but the goal expectations suggest a pattern of low-scoring meetings. When teams with similar expectations meet, they usually keep the tally down. The 2.4-goal average we see for this fixture points to a match where defenses will stay compact and chances will be few.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals. The price of 1.29 matches our view of the game. With an expected total of about 2.4 goals, the odds of staying under 3.5 are high. We think the price is right and the bet looks attractive.
For this to go wrong we would need a sudden burst of goals – perhaps a set-piece or a defensive mistake that leads to a quick double. If more than three goals fall, the pick fails. We are fairly confident, rating the chance of success at 77 out of 100, so we hold the view strongly.
Recent results
Burton have won two of the last four meetings, with two drawn.
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