What to expect
We expect about 1.7 goals from Luton and 1.5 from Stockport, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 3.1 goals in the game, and a match we expect to open up at both ends.
Our pick: Both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net (xG 1.7-1.5), and we make both teams to score about 64%. Expect goals at either end rather than a one-sided shut-out.
We put the chance of that landing at about 64 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.56, which works out at about 64 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
One thing to watch
One well-drilled defence, or a game that turns one-sided, and this is gone. We make it about 64% and the price sits right on top of that, so there's little cushion if it turns.
