Luton v Stockport: how it went

How it turned out

We projected about 3.4 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Both teams to score 66%. It lost.

What we said beforehand

The numbers we have for this game are almost identical – Luton are expected to score about 1.7 goals and Stockport the same. There is almost nothing between the two sides on those numbers. That points to an open game with chances at both ends. Neither side looks clearly stronger, so we can expect the match to be fairly even and likely to produce goals on both sides.

Luton have been struggling lately. In their last five league games they have not won a single match, managing only one draw and losing four. They are coming into this fixture on three straight defeats. Stockport’s recent run isn’t detailed, but the goal expectations suggest they have a similar attacking threat. The recent form of Luton hints they may be vulnerable at the back, while Stockport’s numbers show they can find the net.

Our pick is both teams to score. Both of these carry enough of a threat to find the net – about 1.7 goals each – and we see a 66 % chance of it happening. The price on offer is 1.59, which is longer than our own reading of the game, so we think it is a good price for the likelihood we see.

For the bet to go wrong, both sides would need to keep a clean sheet. That would require a very tight defensive display from either team, which looks unlikely given the goal expectations and Luton’s recent defensive frailties. We hold our view fairly strongly, but we acknowledge the risk if the game turns unusually defensive.