How it turned out
We projected about 2.0 goals; the game finished with 4. Both teams scored. We made Under 3.5 goals 78%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
We expect about 1.0 goals from Wigan and 1.0 from Milton Keynes Dons, which is as level as our reading of a game gets. Put together, that is around 2.0 goals in the game, so we are braced for a tight one where good chances are rare.
Wigan come into this on five straight defeats. Milton Keynes Dons come into this on four straight draws. Recent results are only ever part of the story, but they are worth knowing before kick-off.
Our pick: Under 3.5 goals. This has the look of a cagey, low-scoring game — around 2.3 goals in total (xG 1.1-1.2), keeping it under more often than not (about 81%). Clear chances should be at a premium.
We put the chance of that landing at about 78 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.30, which works out at about 77 out of 100. The two sit close together, so this is a lean rather than a standout price.
Recent results
Milton Keynes Dons have won one of the last two meetings, with one drawn.
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