How it turned out
We projected about 2.8 goals; the game finished with 5. We made Both teams to score 57%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Reading and Mansfield look very evenly matched. The goal expectations are almost the same – about 1.5 for Reading and 1.3 for Mansfield – so neither side looks dominant. With such close numbers we expect a tight game that could open up at any moment. Both teams have enough firepower to test each other, so chances of a clean sheet are low.
Recent numbers show both clubs scoring regularly, and when they have met before the games have usually produced goals on both ends. The pattern suggests that neither defence is likely to shut the other out. When the two have faced each other in the past, the scorelines have tended to be close and feature at least one goal from each side. That history backs up the idea of a match where both teams find the net.
Our pick is both teams to score. We think each side has enough threat to get on the scoresheet, and the combined chance of that happening sits at about 57 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.64, which is a little shorter than what we feel the game deserves, but it still gives a decent return for the risk.
For the bet to fail, one side would need to keep a clean sheet. That would require a very disciplined defence or a missed chance in front of goal. We are fairly confident in our view, but we know football can be unpredictable, so we keep the belief at a moderate level.
Recent results
Reading have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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