What to expect
Our pick: Wigan Athletic under 6.5 corners. Our model makes this about 68% for the home side. Corners are a new market for us — the record is public from day one.
We put the chance of that landing at about 68 out of 100. The price on offer is 1.57, which works out at about 64 out of 100. That gap is the whole reason this is on the site: we rate it more likely than the price does, and the price looks good to us because of it.
One thing to watch
Football turns on small margins, and one moment can undo the soundest-looking pick. We make it about 68%: a lean, not a lock.
