How it turned out
We projected about 2.6 goals; the game finished with 5. Both teams scored. We made Austin FC to score 74%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Austin FC host Nashville SC at home on 11 October 2026 in the MLS. Both clubs are mid-table, but Nashville sit a little higher in the standings. The two sides are close in the table, and a win could push the visitor into the top half while Austin would solidify a push for a playoff spot. The numbers suggest Nashville are the stronger side overall, but the game is expected to produce about 2.6 goals, with Austin averaging 1.1 and Nashville 1.5.
Austin have been hard to beat in their last eight matches, recording three wins and five draws without a loss. Their most recent fixtures were a 3-3 draw with San Diego FC at home, a goalless draw with FC Dallas away, a 2-1 away win over Vancouver Whitecaps, a 1-1 home draw with Colorado Rapids, a 1-1 home draw with San Jose Earthquakes and a 2-1 away win over Portland Timbers. That run gives them twelve goals scored and nine conceded, with only one clean sheet and one game where they failed to find the net. Their last four games at Q2 Stadium have all been draws, so they have not won at home in that period.
Nashville come in on the back of three straight victories. In their last eight outings they have three wins, three draws and two defeats. The recent results are a 2-0 home win over Toronto FC, a 3-0 home win over Chicago Fire FC, another 3-0 home win over Chicago Fire, a 2-2 away draw with Inter Miami, a second 2-2 away draw with Inter Miami and a 2-1 away loss to Toronto FC. Over those games Nashville have scored fourteen and let in eight, keeping four clean sheets and being shut out once. Their road form is weaker, with no away wins in the last five trips, but the three-game winning streak at home gives them confidence.
The two clubs have met four times before. Austin have won once, Nashville twice and one match ended in a draw. Those games have averaged two goals each, and the most recent encounter saw Austin beat Nashville 2-0 on 25 August 2024. Given the recent scoring patterns – both sides finding the net in most of their games and a tendency for three-goal affairs – we expect another open contest with both teams likely to score.
Our pick is Austin FC to score. The chance of Austin finding the net is 74 %, matching the price of 1.39, which sits close to our own reading of the match. We think Austin’s recent home draws and their ability to score in seven of eight recent games give them a solid chance to get on the board. The bet would go wrong if Nashville shut them out, which would require a very tight defensive display from the visitors – something that has not happened often in Nashville’s recent games. All things considered, the price looks good for a simple goal from Austin.
Recent results
Nashville SC have won two of the last four meetings, with one drawn.
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