How it turned out
We projected about 4.0 goals and the game finished with 3. Both teams scored. We made Both teams to score 69%, and it landed.
What we said beforehand
Columbus Crew host Inter Miami at home on 27 September. The Crew sit 14th out of 15 in the MLS table with 26 points from 26 games and a –5 goal difference. One place above them, Atlanta United are just a point clear, while CF Montréal sit two points behind. Inter Miami are the stronger side on the numbers we have, with a slightly higher expected goal tally. Both clubs are looking for points – the Crew need to climb out of the relegation-type zone and Miami want to keep their momentum from a run of draws.
Columbus have been busy in their last eight matches, winning four and losing four. Their most recent results are a 2-0 away win over CF Montréal, another 2-0 win at the same opponent, a 2-1 home victory over Orlando City, then three defeats: 1-0 at home to New York Red Bulls, another 1-0 loss to the same side at home, and a 2-1 loss away to DC United. Those eight games produced 11 goals for Columbus and only seven against, with three clean sheets and two games where they failed to score. Four of the matches featured three or more goals and both sides scored in three of them. The Crew have just come off three straight wins, and they played their last game seven days ago.
Inter Miami’s form over the same span is more subdued. In eight games they have won once, drawn five and lost twice. Their latest fixtures are a 2-2 home draw with San Diego FC, a 2-2 home draw with Nashville SC, a 1-1 away draw at Chicago Fire, a 2-2 home draw with Atlanta United, a 7-1 home win over CF Montréal and a 2-1 home loss to Toronto FC. Miami have not won in their last four matches, all ending in draws, and on the road they have drawn twice and lost once in their last three trips. Across those eight games they have scored 18 and let in 16. Seven of the matches saw three or more goals and both teams found the net in every one. Their most recent game was six days ago.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been open and high-scoring. In the last five meetings, Inter Miami have won four and drawn one, with an average of 3.8 goals per match. The most recent encounter on 2 August ended in a 2-2 draw. That history suggests a game where both sides are likely to create chances and score. Given the recent form – Columbus on a short winning streak and Miami on a string of draws – we expect another match with goals at both ends rather than a defensive stalemate.
Our pick is for both teams to score. The chances of each side finding the net are high – 78 % for Columbus and 82 % for Miami – and the combined probability of both scoring is about 69 %. The price of 1.37 is shorter than what we feel the game deserves, making it an attractive offer. For the pick to fail, one team would need to keep a clean sheet, which seems unlikely given the recent goal-rich matches and the average of nearly four goals in their previous meetings. We therefore back both sides to hit the net.
Recent results
Inter Miami have won four of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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