How it turned out
We projected about 3.1 goals; the game finished with 2. We made Sporting Kansas City to score 1 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Houston Dynamo host Sporting Kansas City at home on 27 September. The Dynamo sit mid-table, while Sporting Kansas City are bottom of the league in 15th place with just 21 points from 26 games and a –32 goal difference. Minnesota United sit one spot above Kansas City, eight points clear. Both clubs played a week ago, so the match will decide whether the Dynamo can pull away from the pack or if Kansas City can claw a point to stay out of the relegation-type zone. The numbers show Houston as the stronger side, with an expected 2.1 goals against 0.9 for Kansas City, suggesting an open game with chances at both ends.
Houston’s recent form has been mixed but steady. In their last eight matches they have won three, drawn three and lost two. The most recent result was a 2-2 draw with FC Cincinnati at home, followed by a 1-0 defeat away to San Jose Earthquakes. Before that they beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 at home, then held Charlotte to a 0-0 draw away, shared another 0-0 stalemate with San Jose at home and lost 2-1 to St Louis City away. In those eight games the Dynamo have scored seven goals and let in six. They kept four clean sheets but also failed to find the net in three matches. At home in their last four outings they have won twice and drawn twice, showing they can pick up points on their own turf.
Sporting Kansas City have struggled badly in their recent run. In eight games they have managed only one win, one draw and six defeats. Their latest outing was a 4-3 loss at home to Philadelphia Union, after a 3-1 victory over Los Angeles FC at home. Prior to that they fell 4-3 away to FC Dallas, then went down 3-0 to Vancouver Whitecaps at home, lost 2-1 away to Atlanta United and drew 1-1 with St Louis City at home. On the road in their last three trips they have lost all three. Across those eight matches Kansas City have scored 11 and conceded 19, failing to score in three games. Five of those fixtures featured three or more goals, and both sides have scored in five of them.
When the two clubs meet, the games have usually been low-scoring. In their last five meetings Houston have won twice, Sporting Kansas City once and two have ended in draws. The average total has been 2.2 goals. The most recent clash on 2 August saw Houston win 2-0 away. Given the recent form and the goal averages, we expect another modest affair with chances for both sides but not a flood of goals.
Our pick is Sporting Kansas City to score one goal or fewer. The price of 1.30 matches our view of the game. We think Kansas City will find it hard to break through a Dynamo side that has kept four clean sheets recently, while still managing to create a few chances of their own. The chance of this bet succeeding sits at 77 percent in our view. It would go wrong if Kansas City suddenly produce a high-scoring performance, as they have done in a few games, or if the Dynamo defence collapses and concedes more than one goal. Otherwise the bet looks solid.
Recent results
Houston Dynamo have won two of the last five meetings, with two drawn.
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