How it turned out
We projected about 2.9 goals and the game finished with 3. We made Real Salt Lake to score 2 or fewer 77%. It lost.
What we said beforehand
Real Salt Lake host New England Revolution at home on 27 September 2026 in the MLS. The Salt Lake side sit 12th out of 15 with 32 points and a –4 goal difference. The Revolution are third with 46 points and a +9 goal difference. The gap between the two is 14 points, so the table position is the main story. Both clubs have similar chances to score in this match – about 76 % for each – and the expected total goals are just under three. The price for our pick is 1.22, which looks a little short compared with what we see on the pitch.
Real Salt Lake have not won any of their last eight games, recording one draw and seven defeats. The most recent results are a 2-0 loss away to Seattle Sounders, another 2-0 loss away to Seattle, a 3-0 loss at home to Vancouver Whitecaps, a 2-0 loss at home to New York City FC, a repeat 2-0 loss at home to New York City, and a 2-1 loss away to Houston Dynamo. In those eight matches they have scored only four goals while conceding 17. They have failed to find the net in five of those games and have kept a clean sheet only once. Their last four home games contain one draw and three defeats, showing how hard it has been to get any points at their own ground.
New England Revolution come into this fixture on a very different run. In their last eight games they have won seven and lost only once. The most recent six results are two 4-2 victories over Orlando City at home, two 2-1 wins away at Chicago Fire, and two 2-1 wins away at New York City FC. They have scored 20 goals and let in 11 in that stretch. All eight matches have produced three or more goals and both sides have scored in every one. Their last game was a week ago, giving them a full seven-day rest before traveling to Salt Lake.
When the two clubs have met before, the games have been relatively open. In the last five meetings Real Salt Lake have won three, New England have won one and one match ended in a draw. Those encounters have averaged 3.2 goals each. The most recent meeting was a 2-0 win for Real Salt Lake on 1 September 2024. Given the recent form, we expect another game with several chances, but the defensive record of the Revolution suggests they will keep the Salt Lake attack in check.
Our pick is Real Salt Lake to score two or fewer goals. We think the Salt Lake side will struggle to add to their meagre four goals from the last eight outings, especially against a Revolution side that has been scoring at least two in each of their recent games. The price of 1.22 looks short compared with our view that the probability of this happening is about 77 %. For the pick to fail, Salt Lake would need to find the net three times, which would require a sudden lift in their attacking output that has not been seen in their last seven defeats. We feel the price is attractive for a bet that leans on Salt Lake’s continued difficulty in front of goal.
Recent results
Real Salt Lake have won three of the last five meetings, with one drawn.
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